MBI Videos
Julien Arino
-
Julien ArinoInternet-based disease surveillance is a tool providing early warning about infectious disease outbreaks. There are variations, but the common idea is to automatically monitor Internet sources (news, blogs, etc.), searching for articles containing keywords related to infectious diseases. Natural language processing is then used to pinpoint the location being mentioned, eliminate duplicates, etc. Some systems additionally have human input to weed out false positives. In all instances, though, these systems produce a large amount of alerts.
I will discuss ongoing work using stochastic metapopulation models for the global spread of infectious pathogens along the global air transportation network. I will show in particular how such models can be used to help filter the large number of alerts generated by Internet-trawling surveillance systems.
-
Julien ArinoInfectious diseases have been spreading across vast distances for milenia as a result of the movement of both human and animal hosts. In the past, both types of hosts had limited movement ranges, and one observed travelling waves of infection slowly expanding across space. Nowadays, the movement of humans has considerably accelerated and expanded, so that one observes another kind of spread, which appears less coherent.
In this talk, I will discuss the mechanisms that give rise to the spatialization of an infectious disease. I will then present metapopulation models, one of the methods that can be used to describe the spatio-temporal spread of infections between distant locations. I will review some mathematical properties of these models, and will illustrate with a stochastic application in the context of the spread of infections via the global air transportation network.
-
Julien Arino -
Julien Arino